Germany, Europe’s largest economy and normally a pillar of stability, is facing snap elections next year after Chancellor Olaf Scholz lost a vote of confidence.
His government collapsed in November in a budget dispute but his coalition had been unsteady for months.
Scholz lost the vote, which he called himself as a step toward securing an early national election, with 394 ballots against him, 207 in his favor and 116 abstentions.
With the election date set for February 23 next year, here’s what’s at stake.
Who’s running?
There will be seven major parties for which Germans will vote. Four of the seven have made official announcements about their Kanzlerkandidaten – candidates for chancellor.
The ever-present two dominant parties of German politics, the Christian Democrats (CDU) and Christian Social Union (CSU), unofficially known as the Union, make up one grouping. The Social Democrats, or SPD, form another.
Given the German system of proportional representation, the government tends to be formed in a coalition, usually headed by the CDU/CSU or the SPD.
The winner looks for a partner to form a majority. Since 2021, Scholz’s SPD had governed in an uneasy coalition with the liberal Free Democrats Party (FDP) and the Green Party. In the 16 years before Scholz’s three-party coalition, the CDU, under Angela Merkel, had relied on both the SPD and the FDP as partners in different governments.
The CDU/CSU this time around will be led by Friedrich Merz, and the SPD by the incumbent but deeply unpopular chancellor, Scholz.
The far-right Alternative for Deutschland party (AfD) has seen strong performances in regional elections give it a national boost. The party’s co-leader, Alice Weidel, is its Kanzlerkandidat. She is known for slick talking and populist policies, particularly on migration. She’s an ardent supporter of upholding traditional German values, famously saying “no one touch my schnitzel!” – a reference to the popular dish.
The Green Party should also be considered one to watch. It is unlikely to gather enough votes to be the biggest party, but nonetheless could play an important role in the formation of the next government. The Greens will be led by Robert Habeck, currently the nation’s Economics Minister.
The three other major parties will be the Free Democrats; the BSW, a left-wing socialist group named after its leader, Sahra Wagenknecht; and lastly Die Linke, a left-wing political party. All three have yet to officially announce their candidates.
Barring a major and unexpected reversal in the polls, Merz of the CDU/CSU is highly likely to be Germany’s new chancellor.
National opinion polls currently have the CDU/CSU way out ahead of the others, with 32% of support from those surveyed. The AfD are currently polling in second place with 18%, the SPD in third with 16%, and the Greens with 14%.
Who is Friedrich Merz?
Merz is not a newcomer to German politics, but this is his second iteration as a politician.
Between 1989 and 1994, Merz was a member of the European Parliament (MEP) for Germany. He subsequently became a member of the Bundestag, or German parliament, representing the CDU there until 2009. He then left politics to work as a corporate lawyer, where he sat on many supervisory boards, including at investment giant BlackRock.
Merz represents the constituency of Hochsauerlandkreis in the Bundestag, the region in which he was born, and currently lives in his hometown of Brilon. He is also widely reputed to be a millionaire and has a private pilot’s license.
Merz made two failed attempts to become CDU head in 2018 and 2020. In 2021 he returned as a member of the Bundestag, for the first time in 12 years, and subsequently went on to secure the nomination as head of the CDU, officially taking over in September 2022.
He is known for having shifted the CDU to the right, with a tougher stance on migration, and a strong economic mind. During his bid to become party leader, he campaigned on not being a Merkel-style heir, unlike his challengers, thus marking the end of the centrist policies of the CDU during her era as chancellor.
Merz is a very strong proponent of backing Ukraine as it fights Russia’s full-scale invasion. He has been a vocal supporter of giving Ukraine German-made Taurus missiles, weapons that could be used to attack Russian targets far beyond Ukraine’s front lines. Scholz, by contrast, has consistently refused to supply them to Kyiv.
Merz made a surprise trip to the Ukrainian capital earlier this month, where he urged European nations to form a “common vision” for peace in Ukraine, especially given the impending arrival of US President-elect Donald Trump in the White House.
What are the main issues?
The economy is going to play a central role in the election, particularly given its sluggish performance under Scholz.
In recent days the German Central Bank has revised down predicted growth forecasts by 0.2%, stating that “the German economy is set to stagnate in the winter half-year 2024-25 and only begins to make a slow recovery over the course of 2025.”
Connected to the debate on the economy will be a focus on reviving the country’s important automotive industry. The Central Bank has said that problems within the industry are “structural,” and are thus exacerbating the drag on the economy.
Major companies including Volkswagen, one of world’s largest car manufacturers, are facing major layoffs and plant closures.
Arguments over immigration will also be critical in this election, particularly as parties look to lure votes away from a surging AfD, which has made it a core issue.
Scholz reintroduced checks on borders with neighboring European nations in recent months, a move many saw as him trying to curry favor with voters who may be turning towards the populist AfD.
The collapse of the Assad regime in Syria will also play into the national debate. Germany took in more Syrian migrants than any other European nation during its civil war. Campaigning around how each party would handle immigrants has already started.
What happens post-election?
It is very hard to see an outcome where the CDU/CSU and Friedrich Merz do not emerge victorious.
Their lead appears cemented and unassailable, but the major question surrounds the formation of a stable government. The CDU/CSU are unlikely to win an outright majority of the 630 seats up for grabs. That means they will have to form a coalition with one (or more) of the other parties. The question is who?
Should the AfD perform as the opinion polls suggest, it would mark a major sea change in German politics. Since its formation in 2013, the party has never gained more than 94 seats. It finished as the fifth biggest party in 2021 and third largest in 2017.
While the AfD will see themselves as potential kingmakers, the CDU/CSU may be unwilling to give them such a prominent voice in running the country.
That leaves the SPD, with whom they have worked previously, particularly in the Merkel era. Or, they could look further left towards the Greens, but that also may come with a clash of principles and policies, given their more left-leaning nature.