President Biden’s decision to stand down from re-election offers Democrats an unprecedented opportunity to reset this election.
At this hour, Vice President Kamala Harris is the most likely nominee.
Many party leaders have endorsed her candidacy, and no other candidate with an appreciable chance of winning the nomination is running.
Harris is known for asking voters to ‘see what is possible, unburdened by what has been.’ Her probable elevation to the top of the ticket allows her party to do that. But it is too early to tell whether she would perform better against former President Trump in the general election than Biden or any other candidate.
That means Biden’s decision to drop out may have been guided more by his own weakness than Harris’ strength. In the meantime, while Harris is unburdened by age, polls show she is burdened by the administration’s unpopularity.
Expect Harris to hold on to issues Democrats are winning and reposition the party on issues they are losing. The race restarts today.
Wait for new polls before drawing conclusions about Harris or any other Democratic candidate
Some recent polls have asked voters whether they would support a Democratic candidate other than Biden.
So far, however, poll respondents are being asked to evaluate a hypothetical scenario.
Voters are about to hear a lot more about the new candidate’s strengths and weaknesses.
Other voters will just be getting to know them.
These factors will all impact their standing with the electorate.
Harris is likely to have the least impact on the Democratic ticket’s standing, since her position as vice president means voters are more familiar with her than any other possible candidate.
However, polls cannot yet show whether her elevation changes the race.
We will know more in a couple of weeks
Even after voters are aware that someone new is the nominee, it will take time to conduct polls and gather enough of them to understand how the race has changed.
Think of this as a three-step process:
Polls must be conducted fully after the news broke; the further from that date they are conducted the more likely they are to capture voters’ informed views of Harris or another candidate.
Pollsters must ‘get into the field’ by designing reliable surveys and collecting responses from their sample of voters over several days. Then they must process and release the results.
Multiple pollsters must release their surveys so analysts can account for outliers. An ideal mix would include national and battleground state polls.
A good rule of thumb is to wait a couple of weeks.
The race was still competitive, with early signs that Biden was struggling in battleground states
Polls conducted after Biden’s fatal debate performance show he was running a close race in national polls.
However, he was beginning to struggle in the most competitive states, narrowing his path to victory.
Biden had support from 46% of registered voters in an average of five post-debate polls, including the Fox News Poll, with Trump at 47%. The margin between them is statistically insignificant. (The polls tested both Biden and Harris against Trump.)
In the battleground states, a somewhat clearer picture was emerging.
Biden was locked in a tight battle in Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, two crucial rust belt states on his pathway to 270 electoral college votes (NYT/Siena, AARP).
He was also within the margin of error in Georgia, where Black voters held the key to Biden’s 2020 election victory (AJC).
In Michigan though, another Rust Belt state crucial to his bid, a poll released yesterday showed Trump leading Biden 49% to 42% in a head-to-head matchup; a seven point difference between the two (Detroit Free Press).
Democrats would have been anxious about a recent poll in Virginia that had Biden at 46% to Trump’s 44%, a two point difference that is well within the poll’s margin of sampling error (NYT/Siena). Biden won the state by 10 points in 2020.
Polls are snapshots in time. They do not account for the challenges that Biden would have faced in the final 100 days of the campaign, including another presidential debate and a rigorous campaign schedule, all while serving as leader of the free world.
Polling and these factors all likely played a role in Democrats’ thinking about his re-election odds and Biden’s decision.
Harris polls about the same as Biden, including among key groups, but she is viewed more favorably
On the surface, Harris’ odds look about the same.
In the same five post-debate national polls, the vice president ties Trump at 47% apiece among registered voters.
That is two points higher than Biden’s number in the same polls.
Her position is similar across three competitive state polls that tested both Biden and Harris.
In Georgia, Trump is ahead of Harris, 51% to 46%; Harris adds a point on Biden’s number, but overall the gap between the two candidates is wider (AJC).
In Pennsylvania, Trump edges Harris 48% to 46%, a two-point improvement on Biden and within the margin of error (NYT/Siena).
In Virginia, Harris gets 48% versus Trump’s 44%, another two-point improvement on Biden and within the margin of error (NYT/Siena).
These numbers suggest that today, a polarized electorate views Harris similarly to Biden. His values are hers; so are his accomplishments and failures.
There is also no meaningful difference between Biden and Harris’ support with key voter groups in a matchup against Trump. From last week’s Fox News Poll:
Black voters (Biden 69%, Harris 69%)
Women voters (Biden 51%, Harris 52%)
Voters under 30 (Biden 47%, Harris 51%)
Independents (Biden 47%, Harris 48%)
Moderates (Biden 53%, Harris 55%)
(Fox News Poll, July 7-10; MOE: Black ±9, Women ±4, Under 30 ±7.5, Independents ±7, Moderates ±6)
That means, so far, her pathway to 270 electoral college votes looks about the same as Biden’s.
Voters view Harris more favorably than Biden.
As the same Fox News Poll revealed, 44% of voters have a favorable opinion of Harris, while 54% view her unfavorably.
Those numbers are similar to Trump’s (-12) and better than Biden’s (-20).
Harris, 59 years old, does not have Biden’s age issue. Voters were already concerned about it before the debate; those concerns exploded after it.
That is likely helping her ratings.
Many unknowns, but new signs of life among Democratic strategists and continuing enthusiasm in the GOP
Again, these results reflect Harris’ current standing, with voters knowing her as the vice president on Biden’s ticket. Her polling, path to 270 and favorability could all change in the weeks ahead.
It is possible, for example, that Democrats will become more enthusiastic about their nominee.
The Democratic fundraising platform ActBlue said yesterday was their ‘biggest fundraising day of the 2024 cycle,’ with Harris raising $47 million since her campaign launch.
Democratic strategists are also much more enthusiastic about the race than before, though Republicans have been for over a year, and they also seem energized by the news.
Other Democrats poll similarly to Harris
July’s Fox News survey also asked about California Gov. Gavin Newsom and Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer, two candidates who the media floated as possible Biden replacements.
(Newsom has endorsed Harris for president, and Whitmer will reportedly do the same).
For both candidates, the race is a dead heat against Trump.
Democrats had not yet formally nominated Biden, so the existing process allows for a different candidate to compete in the general
No presidential candidate has ever announced that they were not seeking another term this close to Election Day.
However, Democrats have not yet formally nominated Biden, which means they can support a new candidate who will appear on general election ballots in all 50 states.
This week, the party is likely to affirm that their existing nominating process will continue as planned.
Under that process, delegates were awarded to candidates after the primaries earlier this year; almost all of them were pledged to Biden. The only step left is for delegates to formally nominate a candidate in the party’s ‘roll call vote.’
This is just like the roll call vote that Republicans held at their convention last week.
The candidate who gets a majority of votes from delegates becomes the nominee. Again, it is most likely, but not guaranteed, to be Harris.
The most pressing question is who she will choose as her running mate. Possible contenders include moderate Govs. Andy Beshear, Roy Cooper and Josh Shapiro.
Democrats must also decide when to hold that roll call vote.
Most recently, the party committee in charge of that process said it would happen in the first seven days of August.
A historic election cycle continues
The Power Rankings forecast was already on hold after Biden’s fatal debate performance and the attempted assassination of former President Trump, another two political earthquakes in this historic election cycle.
Now, Democrats will get to know a new presidential candidate.
Once the party finalizes its nominating process, it is on to the Democratic National Convention, which begins August 19 in Chicago.
(Convention chair Minyon Moore reaffirmed that date yesterday.)
Democrats must also soon decide what to do about further presidential debates.
The Biden and Trump campaigns previously agreed to a presidential debate on ABC in September, which, after Biden’s decision, Trump is calling to be held on Fox News. Harris had also agreed to an August vice presidential debate on CBS and Trump to one on Fox News, possibly at an HBCU. Trump also previously agreed to a presidential debate with Fox News in October.
Whatever happens, Fox News has Democracy ’24 covered.