The first phase of the ceasefire in Gaza that saw dozens of Israeli hostages and hundreds of Palestinian prisoners freed is nearing its end – with Israel and Hamas split on what comes next.
In essence, the Israelis want phase one to continue – the exchange of hostages, alive and deceased, in return for the continued release of Palestinian prisoners and the flow of higher volumes of aid into Gaza. There are thought to be 24 Israeli hostages still alive in Gaza.
But Hamas insists that negotiations include the withdrawal of Israeli forces from parts of Gaza they still occupy and a permanent end to the conflict, as envisaged in the second phase of the deal.
A spokesperson for the group said there were currently “no negotiations” underway on the second phase, which – per the ceasefire agreement – had been due to start immediately and last six weeks, blaming Israel for the failure to start talks.
“Extending the first phase in the manner proposed by the occupation is unacceptable to us.”
The ceasefire agreement stipulates that the truce can continue so long as negotiators are talking, but it’s not clear they are. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu will hold a meeting Saturday evening local time with ministers on the “continuation of the hostage deal,” his office says.
The ceasefire came into effect in January. Altogether 33 Israeli hostages were released, including two men held in Gaza for a decade, as well as five Thai citizens who had been working on kibbutz in southern Israel. Eight bodies were returned. They included the remains of Shiri Bibas and her two small sons – a hugely emotional moment for Israelis.
A total of 1,737 Palestinian prisoners were released, including 120 women and children. One thousand of the prisoners released had been arrested after the Hamas attacks on Israel in October 2023; others were serving long sentences, including life. Some had been in Israeli prisons for decades.
Israeli forces also withdrew from a key corridor splitting north and south Gaza.
The first phase was not smooth, with accusations by each side that the other was contravening the agreement. Israel was aggrieved by the choreographed handover ceremonies organized by Hamas, and especially by the return of a body said to be that of Shiri Bibas which turned out to be that of a Gazan woman.
In return, Hamas accused Israel of delaying the return of people in Gaza to the north, part of the first phase of the agreement, and of obstructing the entry of essential medicines and hospital supplies, as well as tents, prefabricated houses, fuel and rubble-removing machines into Gaza
There were several delays and changes to the schedule, and a good deal of brinkmanship, but international mediators were able to keep the deal alive.
Against this background, talks were due to begin at the beginning of February on the second phase of the deal. These were repeatedly delayed, amid accusations from Hamas that Israel was showing no interest in phase two.
Right-wing members of the Israeli cabinet have demanded a return to war once the first phase was complete. Their support is critical in sustaining Netanyahu’s administration, which must pass a budget by the end of the month.
Hamas has shown during the first phase of the deal that it is still standing, even if battered. The goals of turning the ceasefire into a permanent end of hostilities and the destruction of Hamas are irreconcilable, short of the group agreeing to be disarmed. It has shown no sign of that.
Waiting in the wings is the evolving Arab plan to offer an alternative to Trump’s blueprint for removing Gaza’s two million people. Regional sources say it envisages a 10-year mandate for the reconstruction, governance and security of Gaza and it is due to go to an Arab League summit on Tuesday. It would then be conveyed to the Trump Administration.
But it is a long-term plan predicated on a solid and sustainable end to hostilities. The Israeli government has shown no sign it is ready for that.