As Iran faces escalating nationwide protests and rising verbal threats from the Trump administration, Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei delivered a pointed warning to the United States this week from an unusual platform — his Russian-language account on X — a move analysts say underscores Tehran’s alignment with Moscow as pressure mounts on the regime.
In a post dated Jan. 11, Khamenei wrote in Russian, ‘The United States today is miscalculating in its approach toward Iran.’ Hours later, he followed with a second message, also in Russian, warning that Americans had suffered defeat before because of ‘miscalculations’ and would do so again because of ‘erroneous planning.’
Ksenia Svetlova, executive director of the Regional Organization for Peace, Economy and Security (ROPES) and an associate fellow at Chatham House, said the language choice was telling, even if the execution was clumsy.
‘This is bad Russian,’ Svetlova told Fox News Digital. ‘It seems that it’s translated by Google Translate, not by a human being.’ Still, she said the use of Khamenei’s Russian-language account was no surprise given how closely Iran and Russia have aligned in recent years.
Khamenei’s warning came as Iran’s internal crisis continued to deepen. According to HRANA, a human rights organization tracking the unrest, at least 544 people have been killed in nationwide protests, with dozens of additional cases still under review. Opposition group NCRI has claimed the death toll is far higher — more than 3,000 — though exact figures remain difficult to verify amid widespread internet blackouts imposed by Iranian authorities.
President Donald Trump has led U.S. criticism in response to the rising death toll. In response to a question about whether Iran had crossed a red line, Trump responded by saying, ‘They’re starting to, it looks like. And they seem to be some people killed that aren’t supposed to be killed. These are violent. If you call them leaders, I don’t know if they’re leaders, or just they rule through violence. But we’re looking at it very seriously,’ he said on Sunday aboard Air Force One.
‘We’re looking at some very strong options,’ he added.
Iranian leaders have pushed back, accusing Washington of interference and warning that any U.S. military action would trigger retaliation against American forces and allies in the region.
At the same time, Tehran has signaled it wants to keep diplomatic back channels open. Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmaeil Baghaei said Monday that communication between Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi and U.S. special envoy Steve Witkoff remains active. Axios separately reported that Araghchi reached out to Witkoff over the weekend amid Trump’s warnings of possible military action.
Despite those overtures, analysts say Khamenei’s Russian-language message reflects where Iran sees its most reliable strategic partner.
Russia has become a critical lifeline for Tehran, particularly as Moscow relies on Iranian-supplied drones and other military equipment for its war in Ukraine. That dependence, Svetlova said, means Iran’s internal instability could carry serious consequences for the Kremlin.
‘I think that could be a dramatic effect, because they do depend on Iran — specifically military production, the drones and ballistic missiles,’ she said. ‘They need them to continue their war against Ukraine.’
Yet the partnership has also fueled resentment inside Iran. Svetlova pointed to criticism following the 12-day war with Israel, when many Iranians accused Moscow of failing to come to Tehran’s aid.
‘There was a lot of criticism in Iran against Russia that it did not come to help,’ she said. ‘It didn’t reach out. It didn’t do anything, basically.’
Still, she said Russia has few alternatives as its global position narrows. With longtime allies weakened or toppled, such as Bashar al-Assad in Syria and Nicolás Maduro in Venezuela, Moscow is increasingly reliant on Tehran — even as it remains largely silent about the protests rocking Iran.
Against that backdrop, Svetlova explained, Khamenei’s warning in Russian appears like a signal — to Washington and to Moscow — that Iran sees its confrontation with the United States as part of a shared front with President Vladimir Putin.